I can't help myself.
BE ADVISED: What follows may be incoherent ramblings. I'm trying to corral my thoughts.
This is maddening. I'm having trouble concentrating on my duties, and I can't afford the distraction. Every day, I fluctuate wildly between taking the VSP and thinking my plans through based upon that, and riding it out and being prepared to get the RIF, just in case.
Yesterday, I was leaning toward taking the VSP. Today, I'm leaning toward facing the RIF.
I have a couple of corrections to make. I refigured the bundle they'd give me to voluntarily walk away. I previously figured it at $134,000 and change, which is nothing to sneeze at. Yesterday, I got a wild hair and refigured it more accurately. It's actually $155,000 and change. Yes...the offer is even sweeter than I originally thought.
Then I thought about retirement. While it's possible to earn an active duty retirement while on guard or reserve status, it's difficult to get into a position that would allow that. The best option for me is to ride out the RIF, make it through, and retire happily in a little over 9 years. However, failing that, I can go into the reserve or guard at some point in the next ten or fifteen years, serve two to five years of one weekend a month and two weeks a year, then earn my guard or reserve retirement, which is notably less than the active duty retirement, but is nevertheless something for my pains. It kicks in at 60. I can do this whether I take the VSP or not.
(I just have to enter the guard or reserve on or before my adjusted age is 40. To get my adjusted age, I subtract time of service credit. By my calculations, that makes me about 22 in the reserve's and guard's eyes--29 at most; I'm not sure what they're calling "service credit." I've plenty of time to return to the guard or reserve and fulfil enough weekends to earn the reserve retirement.)
It's nice to know I can still get the retirement anyway, even though it may not be as much or as soon as I planned. At least I won't lose everything, either way.
I've already worked out my plans if I take the VSP. And I admit that while the money wad sounds appealing, the prospect of actual, real time off without any responsibilities whatsoever sounds even better. VSP would give me time to read and study and do well on the GRE Subject test for Literature and apply for a PhD fellowship (or whatever they call it) to the college(s) of my choice, which I'd plan to start the following autumn. As my boss pointed out to me yesterday, I could live fairly comfortably for five years on $20k/year from the sep pay along with the student stipend PhD students receive.
If I hang around for the RIF, I get another four months of active duty pay toward some sort of retirement, another full semester of teaching experience (with, perhaps a less than stellar attitude; it's hard to keep your chin up if you're on death row and waiting for the ax to fall), as well as help getting placed in a guard or reserve position. (If I VSP, I can still go guard or reserve, but I'm on my own.) I'd also have less time on my hands to prepare for the test and apply to college, although I would make it happen.
There's an off chance that the Academy would convert another slot to reservist--perhaps it's better than an off chance. They've already been low-manned enough to convert one active duty slot to reserve, and we're still a fairly well-manned AF. After the RIFs and SERBs and Force Shaping Boards* finish, though, the manning there will be abysmal. Let's face it: the chances of finding military personnel who have the level of education required and the desire to teach are poor even now, and will plummet after these "fat trimming" boards finish.
* Captains and junior majors undergo the "Reduction in Force." Lieutenant colonels past twenty years of active service undergo the Selective Early Retirement Boards. The hapless lieutenants undergo the Force Shaping Boards. Of these, the lieutenants are the only ones who leave with empty pockets.
There are also full-time reserve positions available at the Academy Prep School. They may all be filled, but then, they may not. If there's something available, I am emminently qualified to serve in that capacity, and maintain my benefits and time toward active duty retirement.
For all my thinking and speculating, I'm no further along than when I started, except I have created various plans for myself regardless of what happens. My biggest hassle would be, of course, if I decide to ride it out and lose the bet. That leaves me with the fall semester to complete satisfactorily and professionally while I am scrambling to line up a job for spring, making money arrangements, and applying for grad school.
I checked with my functional at the Air Force Personnel Center yesterday. The "functional" is the officer in charge of assignments in my career field. I asked if the RIF looks at Primary specialty codes or Duty specialty codes (currently, I'm under a special designator for teaching). He replied that they look at core and primary, and mine are both 33S (Communications and Information Systems Officer, high on the RIF charts).
Well, it was worth checking into.
The new information promised in February as well as a look at my last performance report (which hasn't yet made it into my record at the Air Force Personnel Center) will give me a much better idea of my chances, and thus how to proceed.
Well. I'm off to read Hemingway now. *shudder*
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